Steve Fossett missing

[maguromic]

Steve Fossett is missing along with his plane in Nevada.  Lets hope they find him soon and safe.  My thoughts and prayers go out his family and friends.

[PorkPie]

Hope he is alive and safe

[Robin UK]

BBC carrying local Nevada reports saying he went missing Monday evening. As with you guys, hope he's safe.

Robin

[Glen]

The area where he was flying is extremely rugged and difficult for searching. We are all preying he is OK.
Glen

[landracing]

http://www.lasvegassun.com/sunbin/stories/nevada/2007/sep/04/090410210.html

link to local newspaper

Jon

[Blue]

All of Steve's family and friends ask for and appreciate your prayers and support. At this time, we do not have any information beyond what is on the news services. The CAP had to suspend their efforts this evening due to high winds and darkness (the search is primarily visual). The Nevada ANG is coordinating their efforts with the Air Force.

Members of the Fossett LSR team will be participating in the search starting Wednesday morning. Anyone who wishes to assist us is urged to contact the CAP directly.
__________________
Eric Ahlstrom
Program Manager, ALSR
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[hotrod]

Best wishes on the search efforts, used to do that sort of thing.
Do you know if AFRCC has any Sarsat hits (from ELT beacons) to work with?
From what has been posted so far I suspect not.

Larry

[Carl Johansson]

As of 10 pm last night no ELT signal has been detected.  i have flown in and around that area extensively -  it is as someone stated -  extremely desolate and rugged. If something goes wrong when you are over the mountains -  you've got a load of problems -  if something goes wrong between the mountain ranges -  you typically have a few pretty good options!  There is the added problems of mountain ranges making their own weather.

Hope he's hiking in off one of those dry lakes out there!


Carl Johansson

[PorkPie]

Unfortunately is the area where Steve went in trouble one where you has a hard time if you like to find something, everything looks rough and sharp and in camouflage color. Everything looks from the air the same and from the ground it's not better.

 

[Billy @ AHG]

Yeah this really sucks! The story has dropped off the front page and now its old news, the chances are getting slim I hav'nt  heard any thing for days!   THis is why you ALWAYS file a flight plan !   We sure don't want to loose this guy!  The world needs a couple hundred more like him!  Keep yer fingers crossed!

[Freud]

It doesn't make sense to me when they discuss valleys, mountain peaks and canyons.
I can't imagine running a car in any of those locations.
Maybe one has to cross that terrain to get to the dry lake beds, but
CANYONS and VALLEYS.
No WAY.
With satellite fotos of the terrain available it should not be difficult to locate any
lake bed that is long enough for that car.
It's strange that there is no ELT signal or even his hi-tech watch.
FREUD

[hotrod]

From my experience chasing ELT's they only go off about 30% of the time in crashes.
Some are defective
Some have dead batteries (not likely in a well maintained plane like he was flying)
Sometimes they are physically destroyed in the crash
Sometimes the pilot does a good enough job of putting the plane down that the impact loads do not get high enough to set it off.
Sometime it is set off but destroyed in a secondary fire or late impact as the plane slides to a stop in trees or such.
Sometimes they go off but due to their physical location (plane upside down or in a deep terrain feature, or multiple reflections of the signal are nearly undetectable unless you are very close feet or yards some times.

After 5 days odds of survival drop very rapidly.

Larry

[Flyboy]

To me, something doesn't seem right with this plane missing. I was in the area today and the area is not a bad as people report.  The facts as I know them are:

1) Neither the ELT on his plane or watch went off. (all this is hearsay from the papers)
2) The plane is a Decathlon with an approximate range of four hours. The glide ratio on this plane is very good for a prop plane and it can land in a football field.
3) Although there are small mountain ranges all around, they do not extend very far. The chance of gliding from the top or side of one of these is excellent.
4) In between these small mountain ranges are large vast flat areas where one can land safely.
5) These small ranges do not extend very far in any one direction and it's easy to fly around any one of them with the tallest being only approx. 8,000 high. The Tahoe area to the west is a bit higher but no experience pilot would tackle those hights in that plane.
6) There are an abundance of houses and roads from Stead field on South. The area around Black Rock, where I assumed he was going is totally surrounded by roads, rail tracks and about 50 people still living at the Burning Man encampment.
7) Steve Fossett is an excellent pilot who I understood took only took one bottle of water with him and didn't tell anyone where he was going. Every pilot I know uses a flight plan or more popular "flight following", although he made have not been high enough above the ground to use it.

In the areas of flying and skydiving which I am most familiar with there comes upon a time when one develops complacency. In jumping it comes around your 100th jump and then again around your 1,000th jump while in flying it sometimes happens after 200 hours or possibly 1,000 hrs. Mr. Fossett has thousands of hours in many different planes and probably an abundance of confident in his piloting capabilities. On Monday he was flying what he probably regarded as a toy airplane, one with which he could take chances and I think took one. One of the most scenic routes between the ranch and Black Rock is over a large body of water...

Therefore, my conclusion is that he is either at the bottom of Pyramid Lake... or doesn't want to be found. The record run he is planning is probably putting an ernormous strain on him. After all, he has already told everyone he was going to attempt it and people like him can't change their minds and risk loosing face. For the sake of his family, friends and everyone else, I do hope that he is still alive--

I have 1,600 hours of flying small planes across this country.
 

[JackD]

Very well said, and it represents the feelings of a number of people watching for the result with more background that you will get from the news accounts.

[Carl Johansson]

I have privately voiced the same thoughts to others flyboy.  My gut feeling is that he was "skimming" or whatever they call it -  when the pilot trys to drag his wheels in the water -  just skimming the surface.  If he didn't get it exactly right -  got in a little to deep -  the plane would have nosed over into a face plant -  incapacitate the pilot and sink.    under water -  no elt would be heard -  and if he was knocked out by the accident -  he had no chance of getting out!

Media reports still insist he was "scouting" for a place to make his Land Speed record attempt.  That seems to be complete BS -  we know each and every dry lake out there -  he had 2 choices -  Blackrock and Bonneville -  he had already submitted his application to the BLM -  (apparently Bonneville - which I found a bit suprising ) so he was locked in to a site!

I think he went out to have a little fun -  and made a critical error.

My other idea is that he flew south -  low, skirting radar -  refueled  -  and headed to Mexico -  where he is trying to convince Craig Breedlove to make the landspeed attempt dressed in a Steve Fossett mask!

To me, something doesn't seem right with this plane missing. I was in the area today and the area is not a bad as people report.  The facts as I know them are:

1) Neither the ELT on his plane or watch went off. (all this is hearsay from the papers)
2) The plane is a Decathlon with an approximate range of four hours. The glide ratio on this plane is very good for a prop plane and it can land in a football field.
3) Although there are small mountain ranges all around, they do not extend very far. The chance of gliding from the top or side of one of these is excellent.
4) In between these small mountain ranges are large vast flat areas where one can land safely.
5) These small ranges do not extend very far in any one direction and it's easy to fly around any one of them with the tallest being only approx. 8,000 high. The Tahoe area to the west is a bit higher but no experience pilot would tackle those hights in that plane.
6) There are an abundance of houses and roads from Stead field on South. The area around Black Rock, where I assumed he was going is totally surrounded by roads, rail tracks and about 50 people still living at the Burning Man encampment.
7) Steve Fossett is an excellent pilot who I understood took only took one bottle of water with him and didn't tell anyone where he was going. Every pilot I know uses a flight plan or more popular "flight following", although he made have not been high enough above the ground to use it.

In the areas of flying and skydiving which I am most familiar with there comes upon a time when one develops complacency. In jumping it comes around your 100th jump and then again around your 1,000th jump while in flying it sometimes happens after 200 hours or possibly 1,000 hrs. Mr. Fossett has thousands of hours in many different planes and probably an abundance of confident in his piloting capabilities. On Monday he was flying what he probably regarded as a toy airplane, one with which he could take chances and I think took one. One of the most scenic routes between the ranch and Black Rock is over a large body of water...

Therefore, my conclusion is that he is either at the bottom of Pyramid Lake... or doesn't want to be found. The record run he is planning is probably putting an ernormous strain on him. After all, he has already told everyone he was going to attempt it and people like him can't change their minds and risk loosing face. For the sake of his family, friends and everyone else, I do hope that he is still alive--

I have 1,600 hours of flying small planes across this country.