Author Topic: Nuclear Catastrophie  (Read 39055 times)

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Offline panic

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Re: Nuclear Catastrophie
« Reply #15 on: March 13, 2011, 12:59:23 PM »
It may be weeks or months before we find out the true horror of this event.

Still waiting for a straight count of how much is missing from Hanford - but not holding my breath. Wasn't Kerr-McGee supposed to let us know what really happened - it's been 35 years.
Did you hear some of the comments about how "it will dissipate"? You know, as if it were smoke? Are they that stupid, or did they just "get the word"?

Wait for them to STOP reporting it - that's how you know it's really bad.
If they give iodine to anyone, it will be Federal employees only, with a gag order "to prevent a panic" - like everyone on the west coast jumping in their cars.

Offline hotrod

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Re: Nuclear Catastrophie
« Reply #16 on: March 13, 2011, 03:24:10 PM »
Quote
Run away heating in SEVEN nuclear reactors isn't significant?

I did not say that!
You have restated the comment in a manner that misrepresents both what I said and the actual situation.

I said the reactor situation was not very significant when compared to all the other things going on.
There is also not a run away heating situation!

You have to keep all this in context.

First there is no indication I have seen of run away heating they are simply trying to cool the decay heat from fission products that were present at the time the reactor was scrammed. This decay heat rapidly goes away as the fission products cease to exist. Decay heat starts out at about 7% of the reactors power level at the time of shut down dropping to around 2% an hour or two after shut down, and then tapers off to about  1% of initial power after a day. It will drop very slowly after that as only the long half life fission products are left. This is not "run away heating" it is a predictable heat output that tapers of exponentially after shutdown. Highest heat loads for cooling are during the first few hours after shut down, then rapidly diminishing after that.

For those unfamiliar with the nuclear fission process, when a nuclear reactor is operational it is actively splitting atoms of uranium or plutonium or sometimes thorium to release energy. As those atoms break apart they form decay products of other atoms that are also radioactive but that decay away very rapidly (in most cases) releasing both radiation and heat energy. Each decay product either releases energy and becomes another radioactive decay product or it completes its final decay process and ceases to be radioactive. This is a step wise chain that once started must go to completion. Unlike a fire you cannot put it out or stop it by any process known to man.

As a result you cannot just turn off a nuclear reactor like you turn off an engine. If you shut down the primary chain reaction it uses to produce power, the nuclear reactor must still let this secondary decay process run its course. This continues to release energy but is not a "run away" process.

A physical analogy would be a fire place. The primary nuclear chain reaction would be you constantly putting wood on the fire. Once you stop throwing wood on the fire, the then burning wood still has to burn out which continues to produce heat, but at an ever slowing rate until all the wood is consumed and turned to ashes.

The same thing happens in a nuclear reactor, the decay products of the initial fission of an atom are like a burning log, that must still finish burning out before it stops producing energy.

They are at this point trying to control this release of energy from decay heat and provide enough cooling so the fuel rods do not over heat and damage their protective coating that contains the radioactive material.

Based on the announcements that some small amounts of Cesium 137 and Iodine 131 had been detected, than a "few" fuel elements have likely gotten hot enough to damage their cladding, but the low radiation levels detected indicate that at this point there is no large scale breakdown in the fuel or large scale "uncontrolled" reaction. By flooding with sea water, and boric acid they are taking preventive measures to make sure it stays that way.

The information I have seen is that the plant that is most impacted was near the end of its design life anyway. It was going to be decommissioned anyhow and due to the present situation it would never operate again as a power reactor as they would never be able to recover the costs of repair, so the logical solution is to take the most cost effective means to ensure it goes cold as soon as possible.


Boron the element in boric acid, acts as a poison to nuclear fission. The boron atoms absorb neutrons that have the potential of triggering the fission another atom.  By adding the boric acid they are ensuring that no large scale fission reaction can take place even if for some reason a large number of fuel elements were severely overheated and began to melt.

When compared to the direct impacts to life and property of the earthquake and the tidal wave, the nuclear reactors are orders of magnitude smaller in direct impact. --- ie not significant when compared to the other problems going on.

Mean while the explosion on the video simply blew the exterior sheet metal cladding off the building. These buildings are intentionally designed to blow out panels in case of a rapid internal pressure rise without damaging piping etc. All though it looked impressive on the video every indication I have seen is that the structural contents of the building were largely untouched, and only the cosmetic external panels were blown off.

Last of all --
1. There is absolutely nothing we can do about the situation in any case, it is all in the hands of the Japanese half a world away.
2. The radiation releases they are mentioning are gnat farts compared to the expanse of the pacific ocean basin and will have absolutely no impact on the U.S.
3. We are guessing based on 3rd hand info from 3rd hand sources processed for public release. The fact is we have no clue what is really going on, and based on historical nuclear accidents, the specialists on the scene don't fully understand what they are dealing with either and will not know for weeks-years what actually happened inside the reactor. They are making their best guess given loss of all instrumentation and power, and are winging it based on the evidence they have at hand.
There is no real time action you can take that will have any impact at all on you your friends or the resolution of the emergency so lets wait until we have some actual post accident analysis to deal with before we start discussing what shoulda coulda woulda happened.

Larry
« Last Edit: March 13, 2011, 03:30:05 PM by hotrod »

Offline k.h.

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Re: Nuclear Catastrophie
« Reply #17 on: March 13, 2011, 04:58:20 PM »
After Chernobyl, the daily left wing paper in West Berlin printed Caesium-137 counts in foods on the local market, everything from Danish qvaark to Turkish figs.  I stopped eating the figs.  Now I need to find a Geiger counter before harvesting the garden.
In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice.  But in practice, there is.--Jan L. A. Van de Snepscheut

Offline hotrod

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Re: Nuclear Catastrophie
« Reply #18 on: March 13, 2011, 07:27:01 PM »
Here is a very good description of what has happened at the plants, how they  manage this sort of situation and an description of the outcome. It also has a very good discussion of the multiple layers of protection the plant is designed around.

http://bravenewclimate.com/2011/03/13/fukushima-simple-explanation/

Larry

DocBeech

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Re: Nuclear Catastrophie
« Reply #19 on: March 13, 2011, 08:32:18 PM »
Those layers are all fine and great, but gone. The building exploded. The Japanese Gov also reported the cooling systems are failing.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704893604576199022182617758.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

(Reuters) - The Japanese Nuclear Safety Agency on Saturday rated the nuclear accident at Tokyo Electric Power Co's (TEPCO) Fukushima Daiichi plant in Japan at a four on a scale of one to seven, which is not quite as bad as the Three Mile Island accident in the United States in 1979, which was rated a five.

The agency hasn't provided an update of its assessment since Saturday despite further problems at the Daiichi plant.

So how were the events different?

THREE MILE ISLAND:

* Three Mile Island is the worst nuclear power accident in U.S. history even though it resulted in no injuries.

* About half the reactor core in one unit at the Three Mile Island plant in Pennsylvania melted due to the loss of coolant. The other unit suffered no damage and still operates today.

* The plant did vent a small amount of radiation to release pressure but nuclear experts said that release did not result in radiation levels beyond what environmental regulations allow.

* State authorities recommended a voluntary evacuation of pregnant women and pre-school age children from within five miles of the plant. Within days, about 140,000 people had left the area.

* Operators at Three Mile Island stopped the meltdown by restoring cooling water to the reactor core.

* The Three Mile Island accident was caused by a combination of personnel error, design deficiencies and component failures, according to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC).

* After Three Mile Island, the NRC strengthened safety standards for all U.S. reactors, delaying the construction of many reactors already under construction. The industry did not start building a new reactor in the United States for about 30 years, and only in the past few years have power companies sought permission to construct new reactors

FUKUSHIMA DAIICHI:

* Three units at the Daiichi nuclear plant suffered a loss of coolant to their reactors following a massive earthquake and a devastating tsunami. The fuel rods in at least one unit were damaged due to the loss of coolant and suffered a partial meltdown.

* The plant vented a small amount of radiation to release pressure in the units' containment, raising the levels in the immediate vicinity of the plant above the legal limit. The plant also suffered an explosion caused by a buildup of hydrogen that collapsed the roof on at least one of the units.

* The government ordered the evacuation of tens of thousands of people from around the plant and by Saturday a total of 140,000 had been evacuated from around Daiichi and another nearby plant Daini.

* Operators at Daiichi are pouring seawater into at least two reactors at the plant to prevent a further meltdown.

* As for the future, nuclear experts said it was too soon to say what affect the Daiichi accident would have on the so-called nuclear renaissance, but noted it would certainly be a lot harder to build a new reactor for a while.


Offline Dean Los Angeles

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Re: Nuclear Catastrophie
« Reply #20 on: March 13, 2011, 10:45:30 PM »
7:00 Sunday night
A second explosion has happened. The #3 unit has suffered an explosion.

A ten foot tsunami has been reported on the way.

The damage from the earthquake and tsunami are done. The damage from this event could go on for many years.

Your Geiger counter will detect ionizing radiation beta particles and to some extent gamma rays, but won't show alpha radiation.
« Last Edit: March 13, 2011, 10:55:36 PM by Dean Los Angeles »
Well, it used to be Los Angeles . . . 50 miles north of Fresno now.
Just remember . . . It isn't life or death.
It's bigger than life or death! It's RACING.

Offline k.h.

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Re: Nuclear Catastrophie
« Reply #21 on: March 13, 2011, 11:56:06 PM »
Okay, now it's all up to the jet stream.

As Japan is a very modern country, the utter devastation and what it takes to respond to it, gives one pause as to what a similar disaster in the US would entail, with or without the nuke plants.
In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice.  But in practice, there is.--Jan L. A. Van de Snepscheut

Offline wobblywalrus

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Re: Nuclear Catastrophie
« Reply #22 on: March 14, 2011, 12:48:46 AM »
We have a similar fault off of the Oregon coast with the potential for a quake of this size that occurred in Japan.  Historic records show that quakes occur at periodic intervals and we are due to have another one at any time.  We know about this and have been preparing.

Several years ago I did a "tsunami-proof" protection design for a coastal bridge.  My part was to figure out how to protect the bridge piers and abutments from the tidal waves.  It was our first design of this type and it was amazing how little information was available on this facet of engineering.  A lot was basic intuition and there was no established design method.  Not a lot of calculations.  A lot of it was simply imagining what a tidal wave will act like and acting on that mental image.  The bridge protection was designed a few primitive calculations and this method.

This design taught us how little we know.  We commissioned a study with the University of Hawaii, Oregon State University, and others.  The big task was to model the tidal waves.  The wave data would give us information for engineering and we used the recently designed bridge as the subject.  Multi dimensional finite element analyses were made using the local sea floor shape and tidal waves coming in from different directions and distances.  It took a lot of run time on the most powerful computers in the country to execute the model.  The results were worth the trouble.  We actually watched the simulated waves rush up and hit the bridge.  We saw in the virtual way the things you see in the videos of the Japan tidal waves.  It is amazing and terrifying.

Some of our models show coastal Oregon cities being inundated and swept away.  We cannot engineer defenses against these waves.  They are too big.  The best we can do is to avoid them by moving the critical infrastructure up and out of harms way.  This will be a big job for the next generation.   

Offline k.h.

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Re: Nuclear Catastrophie
« Reply #23 on: March 14, 2011, 09:12:52 AM »
I spent a number of years in the Aleutian Islands way back when.  All the Aleut native villages were on the north sides of the islands.  On the south sides were evidence of debris, logs and such over a mile inland.  We had about 900 small earthquakes per month, and once in awhile some that would rock the boat.  Just the tidal change in Unimak Pass would create a 12-16 ft. wall of water.  Sorry, no photos.  Nature doesn't care.
In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice.  But in practice, there is.--Jan L. A. Van de Snepscheut

Offline Dean Los Angeles

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Re: Nuclear Catastrophie
« Reply #24 on: March 14, 2011, 11:24:08 AM »
Monday morning update.

Unit 1 - Explosion. Seawater and boron. Complete irreversible failure.

Unit 2 - Seawater and boron. Complete irreversible failure.

Unit 3 - Explosion. Seawater and boron. Complete irreversible failure.

Quote
Unit 3, which exploded early Monday morning in Japan, reportedly has a leak in its bottom.
"The situation is getting worse by the hour. We haven't hit bottom yet... We now have reports that unit 3 suffered perhaps a 90 percent uncovering of the core -- this is unprecedented since Chernobyl," Kaku said.
The leak is making it difficult to keep the core of the reactor covered with sea water, Dr. Michio Kaku, a physicist, said.

The Onagawa plant reported very high levels of radiation. No reports have come from this plant. There is some speculation that the radiation came from the other plants. That's 55 miles from the other plants. The evacuation zone is only 12 miles.
Well, it used to be Los Angeles . . . 50 miles north of Fresno now.
Just remember . . . It isn't life or death.
It's bigger than life or death! It's RACING.

Offline 4-barrel Mike

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Re: Nuclear Catastrophie
« Reply #25 on: March 14, 2011, 12:33:37 PM »
Ah, Michio Kaku, a "popularizer" of science, author of many books including "Parallel Worlds", currently working on the "Theory of Everything", AND adamant anti-nuclear anything*

Please quote a non-partisan "scientist".   :cheers:

Mike

* Kaku has publicly stated his concerns over matters including the human cause of global warming, nuclear armament, nuclear power and the general misuse of science.[6] He was critical of the Cassini-Huygens space probe because of the 72 pounds of plutonium contained in the craft for use by its radioisotope thermoelectric generator. Conscious of the possibility of casualties if the probe's fuel were dispersed into the environment during a malfunction and crash as the probe was making a 'sling-shot' maneuver around earth, Kaku publicly criticized NASA's risk assessment.[7] He has also spoken on the dangers of space junk and called for more and better monitoring. Kaku is generally a vigorous supporter of the exploration of outer space, believing that the ultimate destiny of the human race may lie in extrasolar planets; but he is critical of some of the cost-ineffective missions and methods of NASA.

Kaku credits his anti-nuclear war position to programs he heard on the Pacifica Radio network, during his student years in California. It was during this period that he made the decision to turn away from a career developing the next generation of nuclear weapons in association with Teller and focused on research, teaching, writing and media. Kaku joined with others such as Helen Caldicott, Jonathan Schell, Peace Action and was instrumental in building a global anti-nuclear weapons movement that arose in the 1980s, during the administration of U.S. President Ronald Reagan.

Kaku was a board member of Peace Action and on the board of radio station WBAI-FM in New York City where he originated his long running program, Explorations, that focused on the issues of science, war, peace and the environment.

His remark from an interview in support of SETI, "We could be in the middle of an intergalactic conversation...and we wouldn't even know.", is used in the third Symphony of Science installment, Our Place in the Cosmos.


from wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michio_Kaku
Mike Kelly - PROUD owner of the V4F that powered the #1931 VGC to a 82.803 mph record in 2008!

Offline panic

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Re: Nuclear Catastrophie
« Reply #26 on: March 14, 2011, 01:01:23 PM »
The Japanese public has still not gotten the entire story on WW2. Based on that time line (some of the people involved are still alive) we'll have disclosure in 70 years.
Remember that the most delicate patient here isn't the Japanese public (and certainly not the American public), or even Japanese industry, but the Nikkei index. Anything like the truth (cost in trillions broken down per household, years to rebuild infrastructure, how many cancer deaths in 50 years) will make it look like 1929.

Offline Dean Los Angeles

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Re: Nuclear Catastrophie
« Reply #27 on: March 14, 2011, 02:21:11 PM »
Despite venting from all four reactors, it looks like some power has been restored at the Fukashima Daini plant. They are reporting some cooling pumps running in three of the reactors. The other one is listed as a cold shut down on the 12th.

No such luck 11 miles down the coast. The Fukashima Daiichi plant has had total failure on all three reactors. (three were shut down for maintenance). You no doubt saw the explosions at the #1 and #3 unit. They are afraid #2 will follow.

Sea water and boric acid are being pumped using fire pumps into all three of the reactors. It isn't working. There is a leak out the bottom of #3 and it won't hold water. They think 90% of the core is exposed. #1 and #2 have been fully exposed more than once.

The spent fuel pool is above the reactor. There is a huge amount of radioactive material there.

Quote
Tokyo Electric said it was trying to figure out how to maintain water levels in the pools, indicating that the normal safety systems there had failed, too. Failure to keep adequate water levels in a pool would lead to a catastrophic fire, said nuclear experts, some of whom think that unit 1’s pool may now be outside.

“That would be like Chernobyl on steroids,” said Arnie Gundersen, a nuclear engineer at Fairewinds Associates and a member of the public oversight panel for the Vermont Yankee nuclear plant, which is identical to the Fukushima Daiichi unit 1.
« Last Edit: March 14, 2011, 02:24:01 PM by Dean Los Angeles »
Well, it used to be Los Angeles . . . 50 miles north of Fresno now.
Just remember . . . It isn't life or death.
It's bigger than life or death! It's RACING.

Offline wobblywalrus

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Re: Nuclear Catastrophie
« Reply #28 on: March 14, 2011, 11:08:48 PM »
This is the first of two photos.  I am standing in the opening of the bridge I helped to design and looking west across the Pacific.  This ocean was much lower in the ice ages.  A lot of water was frozen and on land.  This little creek cut a V-shaped channel in the sandstone bedrock.  The old channel bottom is 90 feet below my shoes.  The ocean rose up after the ice ages and the channel filled with sand and gravel to its present elevation.  We drilled a lot of holes to determine the geology of the land under the bridge.  Down below my feet under 55 feet of sands and gravels we found fresh wood in many holes.  Logs, etc.  The wood was not very old.  It looked just like the wood on the beach.

There was an earthquake and tidal wave around 1700 AD on the nearby fault about 70 miles or so out in the ocean.  Records from Japan helped us to determine the date.  The waves hit their islands.  We think the tidal wave scoured a 55 foot deep layer of sands and gravels out of this canyon and dumped it back on the beach.  The logs were on the bottom of all this.  Look close at the ocean edge in the right of the photo.  There is a person there with blue pants and a grey top.  He or she is standing near something that will tell us about the true power of what we are seeing.

Offline wobblywalrus

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Re: Nuclear Catastrophie
« Reply #29 on: March 14, 2011, 11:23:43 PM »
This is the second photo.  We are far out on the beach during a very low tide.  Things are visible now that are hidden by a sand layer during the summer months.  This is near where the person was standing in the first photo.  In front of us is a root ring of a Sitka Spruce.  This is not petrified wood.  It is the real thing.  Cypresses grow in salt water.  Sitka spruces cannot.  They are usually up on the bank at least twenty feet above the water like the trees on the bluff in the background.

We have map showing all of the land contours around the bridge.  We used it when we designed the structure.  The root ring is 25 to 35 feet lower than the elevation where Sitka spruces grow now.  Geologic studies of the Oregon coast show evidence of the shore dropping suddenly and violently during the big 1700 quake.  The evidence can be seen here.